Exploration on the Direction of Future Education in the Era of School-age Population Decline: Based on Future School Scenarios

 Tanaboon Poonphol 256511002

Exploration on the Direction of Future Education in the Era of School-age Population Decline: Based on Future School Scenarios

This research project, titled "Exploration on the Direction of Future Education in the Era of School-age Population Decline: Based on Future School Scenarios", delves into critical aspects of future education in South Korea.

Here are the key elements of the research project as requested:

• 1) Research Title The research project is titled "학령인구 감소 시대 미래 학교교육의 방향 탐색: 미래학교 시나리오를 바탕으로", which translates to "Exploration on the Direction of Future Education in the Era of School-age Population Decline: Based on Future School Scenarios".

• 2) Researcher & Institutional Affiliation The research was conducted by a team of six researchers:

  • Kim Hyun-Mi (김현미), Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.
  • Lee Soo Jung (이수정), Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.
  • Choi Hangsub (최항섭), Professor, Kookmin University.
  • Byun Heehyun (변희현), Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.
  • Jung Eunju (정은주), Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.
  • Joo Hyung Mi (주형미), Senior Research Fellow, Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.

  The paper itself was published in 2024, Vol. 27, No. 1, of The Journal of Curriculum and Evaluation. It is noted to be a supplement to a part of a 2022 research report by the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation.

• 3) Research Objectives The primary objective of this study is to propose directions for future school education by developing future school scenarios in an era of declining school-age population. More specifically, the research aims to:

  • Construct future school scenarios for the year 2040, considering the ongoing population decline and diverse regional population change patterns.
  • Identify expected issues based on these future school scenarios.
  • Suggest improvement plans for future school education. To achieve this, the study analyzes existing research on future society megatrends, future school cases, and future education scenarios, and uses a scenario methodology to concretize three future school scenarios.

• 4) Research Methodology The research employed scenario methodology and the Delphi survey method. Specifically, it utilized a hierarchical complex scenario methodology and an online Delphi survey. The General Morphological Analysis (GMA) scenario methodology and Cross Consistency Assessment were also applied to derive the scenarios.

  • 4.1) Sampling Design The Delphi survey targeted a total of 70 experts. This group included:

    • 50 education sector experts (teachers, professors, provincial/municipal education office officials, and research institution specialists).
    • 20 experts from outside the education sector.

  • 4.2) Measurement Design

    • Key Variables: The study identified four key variables for the 2040 future school scenarios, derived from prior research on future society megatrends, future school cases, and future education scenarios, as well as expert opinions:
      1. School-age population distribution: Categorized as 'Metropolitan Area Concentration' (수도권 집중) or 'Regional Balance' (지역 균형).
      2. School operation: Categorized as 'Elementary, Middle, High School Centric' (초·중·고 중심) or 'Diverse Forms' (다양한 형태).
      3. Educational space: Categorized as 'School Space Centric' (학교 공간 중심) or 'De-schooling' (탈학교화).
      4. Educational governance: Categorized as 'Government-led' (정부 주도) or 'School/Community-led' (학교/지역사회 주도).
    • Measurement Tools and Data Collection: The Delphi survey comprised two main parts: 'Occurrence Probability' and 'Desirable Future'.
      • For 'Occurrence Probability', there were 4 questions regarding the probability for each of the four variables, and 6 questions asking about the relationship between each variable and other variables.
      • For 'Desirable Future', there were 4 questions asking about the desirable future for each of the four variables.
      • The strength of the relationship between variables was assessed using a 5-point scale.
      • The survey was conducted online in two rounds: the 1st round from July 18-22, 2022, and the 2nd round from August 4-10, 2022. The 2nd round included additional questions asking for the reasons behind the experts' choices.

  • 4.3) Statistical Design

    • After the Delphi survey, the raw data underwent coding and data pre-processing.
    • Analysis was conducted using the STATA program.
    • To derive scenarios from the combinations of variables, the study employed Cross Consistency Assessment (CCA), which is part of the General Morphological Analysis (GMA) scenario methodology. This method measures the 'strength of relationship' between all categories of all variables and systematically removes illogical, inconsistent, or highly improbable combinations, thus making the scenario derivation process more efficient.

• 5) Findings & Recommendations Based on the analysis, the study derived three specific 2040 future school scenarios:

  • Future School Scenarios:

    1. Concentrated Type ("Better, but more concentrated"): This was identified as the most probable scenario, with a 38.6% occurrence probability. It features a metropolitan area concentration of the school-age population, diverse forms of school operation, de-schooling of educational space, and school/community-led education. An example provided is a medium-sized urban elementary-middle integrated school in ○○ Province.
    2. Distributed Type ("Completely different from now"): This was identified as the most desirable scenario, with an overwhelming 74.3% preference among experts. It envisions a regional balance in school-age population distribution, diverse forms of school operation, de-schooling of educational space, and school/community-led education. An example is a small-scale elementary school in a stable rural/fishing village in ○○ Province.
    3. Crisis Type ("As is now"): This scenario was found to be the least desirable and, notably, also the second most probable scenario, with a 20.0% occurrence probability. It reflects a future where the school-age population is concentrated in metropolitan areas, school operations remain elementary, middle, and high school-centric, educational space is school-space-centric, and education is government-led. An example is a small-scale middle school in a highly spatially isolated rural area in ○○ Province, experiencing a severe decline in students.

  • Recommendations for Future School Education (Directions for Change & Policy Improvements): The study suggests several key directions for future school education:

    • Redesign school education reflecting school-age population changes: This includes implementing flexible academic systems and school operations, enhancing regional educational capacity, building regional infrastructure to prevent talent outflow, and dispersing the school-age population by addressing overcrowded classrooms. The focus should shift from economic efficiency to student well-being and happiness.
    • Diversify school operations to enable various forms: This involves supporting diverse forms of small-scale schools (e.g., campus-type, hub-type, dormitory-type), minimizing circuit teachers (or transitioning them to education office affiliation), and ensuring the legal status of integrated schools through amendments to the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. Enabling cross-grade teaching by allowing teachers to obtain multiple qualifications is also suggested.
    • Expand educational space through the establishment of digital education environments and community-linked education: This necessitates building and supporting digital/AI educational environments (e.g., smart classrooms, metaverse experience rooms, AI robots) with ongoing maintenance and financial support from local governments and education offices. It also calls for enhancing teachers' expertise in utilizing edutech and connecting online/offline learning, and transforming schools into lifelong learning ecosystems that integrate with the community through shared facilities and resources.
    • Disperse educational governance to expand autonomy in school curriculum: This means providing only minimal common standards in the national curriculum to allow for flexible, autonomous curriculum operation at regional and school levels. It also advocates for supporting specialized schools with unique curricula, diversifying university admission systems to foster local talent (moving away from competition), supporting teachers' professional development, and fostering crucial collaboration between local governments, education offices, schools, parents, and local residents.

• 6) References for this research The research provides an extensive list of references. Some of the key references cited include:

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